October is getting on the late fringe of severe thunderstorm season in Wisconsin. However the next 10 days will offer a rather active jet stream track from the southwest United States right up toward the western Great Lakes. It will deliver 3 or 4 moderate to strong low pressure systems. Each will be tapping warm and humid air from the south and pulling down cool and dry air on their back side. This combination along with the strong wind shear in place will likely yield severe thunderstorms at times across the Midwest. Check out the severe outlook for Monday October 1st, from the Storm Prediction Center. They have the slight risk area into extreme southern Wisconsin with a marginal risk just a bit north of that.
The next strong low pressure system will ride up through Minnesota toward Lake Superior Wednesday. It will push a cold front into western Wisconsin Wednesday afternoon at peak heating when temperatures might be in the 70s with dew points in the 60s. SPC has a zone over western Wisconsin shaded in the 15% chance of severe storms. Some models indicate their will be enough wind shear and low enough cloud bases for tornado activity. This will all depend on the atmosphere getting unstable enough to generate the severe thunderstorms. We’ll have to monitor that situation carefully.
There is another system lined up for Friday, with a fourth perhaps on Sunday October 7th. It is still too far away to get very specific on those, but stay tuned! What a weird early fall pattern.
